Predictions for the 2010 Decade
As 2010 rolled in I reflected back on the decade which started in 2000. Social media didn’t exist. Names like Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, Delicious and dozens of others didn’t exist. As I look at the new decade it’s impossible to predict the names of new innovations and products that will be part of our lives.
I’m not much of a predictor. But, I enjoy looking at the forest’s treetops to make observations. My predictions on the new decade are based on human, cultural and technological factors. I offer my observations on how we may be running our businesses during the next decade. I invite you to offer your thoughts and predictions.
Brand Definition
In the 00’ decade brands began to understand the shift in control to the customer. Progressive brands began to understand their limited influence on brand perception. As we enter the 10’ decade progressive brands are allowing their customers to shape their brand by focusing on quality products/services, quality customer service and quality communication. Brands who resist the evolution of brand control to the customer will suffer.
Product Development
In the second half of the 00’ decade product development began to shift from internal, demand centric processes to externally driven, distributed processes. Products like the iPhone, the Kindle and new services like Facebook and Twitter are examples from the 00’ decade of the new product development paradigm. None of these products had conventional demand from an existing customer base. Product development is leaving the enterprise and moving to the customer. Execution is left to the company through collaboration of resources without regard for geography and through effective communication strategies.
Customer Acquisition
This topic varies greatly by industry. Generally speaking customers have more choices than ever before. Conventional sales will always have its role. But, product innovation is a bigger factor than ever before. That requires outside the box thinking. In the 00’ decade we saw some surprising product choices like Google Docs vs. Microsoft Office compete for established market share. In this example, Microsoft didn’t consider Google a competitor for Office at the beginning of the 00’ decade. In the 10’ decade businesses must provide more compelling choice to their customers to maximize customer acquisition.
Customer Service
This is probably the second most important topic for any business to master in the 10′ decade. It’s one thing to win a new customer. It’s another to keep that customer. In the 00’ decade the company who became the poster child for customer service is Zappos. How many companies do you know invite you to call them and will help you find and buy a product even if it requires directing you to their competitor? Zappos creates a WOW experience that spreads among consumers. This new customer service mindset creates an experience and loyalty that spreads. This new level of customer service is difficult for many companies to embrace because it’s such a paradigm shift. Another factor in the 10’ decade is the mindset that customer service is a company-wide function. Employees who believe customer service is a department are sadly mistaken. Every employee is in customer service in the 10’ decade. Those who execute this strategy will win and keep more customers.
Marketing
The 00’ decade began the transition to the mantra “marketing is the enterprise.” In the 10’ decade marketing will be the most important factor in business success. No offense to sales-driven companies, but marketing is the central nervous system of the enterprise in the new decade. And, the cardiovascular system is communications. The marketing strategy is now all about the experience. Customers live in a digitally connected world at home, in the car, on the bus, at work, even at their kid’s soccer games. Brands who give their customers opportunities to experience their value proposition will win loyalty. Some B2C brands that do this already include Red Bull, Comcast and Ford Motor Company. Some B2B brands that do this already include Cisco, Indium Corp. and HubSpot. The secret sauce to creating an experience is to experiment with different communications that touch people through more than one sensory including sight, sound, smell, taste, touch. Yes, even B2B brands can do this.
Business Responsiveness
The 00’ decade introduced businesses to an accelerated pace of business responsiveness. Businesses who responded quickly to customer and marketplace feedback did well. Quick response was generally defined in days, not weeks, sometimes even within hours. In the 10’ decade we’ve already begun the transition from quick response to real-time response. Technology and culture has been the impetus for this evolution to real-time response. Consumers have come to expect it. Businesses that understand the importance of real-time responsiveness to day-to-day product issues will enjoy more customer loyalty.
Management
Business management has been the study of many famous authors and universities for decades. In the 00’ decade we began the transition from a top down hierarchy of management to a more flat org chart. In the 10’ decade look for org charts to get even flatter with new titles. We’ve already seen new titles emerge such as Chief Customer Officer. Businesses who focus on engaging their customer through culture, technology, great service and innovation will restructure their organization to meet the customer where she is in the way she wants to be engaged.
Innovation
In the 00’ decade we saw innovations that will likely continue to into the 10’ decade. New innovations will occur around customer adoption of new habits. More emotion will be factored into innovation as the lines continue to blur between business and personal behavior. Even the most technical B2B products are evaluated and purchased by humans with emotions. Innovation that meets current and future customer needs, delivered in multi-sensory communication channels will out-perform those that don’t.
Key Trends to Watch in the 10’ Decade
Multi Media
As we enter the 10’ decade most businesses are still single media. Some use video but most use it in a very limited manner. Businesses that communicate a consistent message across many media formats will be requisite. It won’t be enough to use video. Your message will need to be very clear and you’ll need to offer your customers many ways to consume your content and engage with you. Businesses across all industries will begin to adopt multi media channels to communicate. Consider the example of (now famous) blender manufacturer Blendtec and their (now famous) video strategy Will it Blend? If an unknown blender manufacturer can use multi media with outstanding results, any business can. And, many more will.
Younger CEOs
Tony Hsieh grew Zappos from $1.6M in 2000 to over $1B in 2008 before the age of 40. In 2009 he sold Zappos to Amazon for $847M. I hesitate to stereotype around age. But frankly, few CEOs over 40 have embraced the evolution of the new enterprise. In the 10’ decade, look for younger CEOs to emerge that have proven experience growing brands by building a strong culture around a strong product with great customer service (like Tony Hsieh).
The Unconventional Will Become Conventional
The successful enterprise of the 10’ decade may be a company of 10 employees located across multiple continents. Their rise may occur in 5 years or less, e.g., Facebook. The decades-old established brand may struggle or not survive if their product doesn’t maintain customer acceptance, e.g., General Motors. Companies like 37Signals will build a great product, share it with others at competitive price points and create customer evangelists who then tell others about it and beat out traditional competitors like Microsoft.
More Connected
We have become a globally connected society. But, we’re just getting started. In the 10’ decade look for all consumers to be even more connected. The applications we use will be more integrated to converge email, video, photo, texting, instant messaging and more. The term social media will fade away. All software will be social. We’re already seeing these early developments through Google’s Docs and Wave offerings. This is just the beginning. Look for content and connections to be available at our hand held fingertips, desktops and media devices. This trend will have a significant impact how businesses communicate and build brand loyalty.
Premium Content
I predict the decade of 10’ will be the death of FREE content. This is likely the riskiest prediction I make. Content producers will figure out ways to monetize their content. Look for businesses to create content at different price points ranging from the solo entrepreneur to large enterprises. You may soon subscribe to your local newspaper digitally at price points ranging from $5 per month to $50 per month depending on the package you select. Look for content producers to merge and partner for creative packages. You may choose the car you buy based on a bundled offer of digital content on a device integrated into your dashboard that doesn’t even exist at the time of this writing.
I believe the new decade will be filled with more paradigm shifts, innovation and surprises. I don’t know exactly what they will be. But, I do know for sure it will be a fun ride. Are you ready?
What are your predictions for the 10′ decade? Which of my predictions do agree with or disagree?
Happy New Decade!
Bernie Borges
@berniebay
17 Comments to Predictions for the 2010 Decade
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Bernie,
I'm in agreement with all of your predictions. The one I'm most knowledgeable about is Marketing. B2B Marketing in particular. I think most everybody in the business world realizes that 'order taker' salespeople have been disintermediated by the internet. For complex B2B products and services, sales people are still very much needed. Their roles, though, should be upgraded and focused. 'Beating the bushes', 'cold calling', 'hunting'… whatever you want to call it, is less and less effective. Marketing's role is growing through the addition of what I call 'sales enablement' activities. These are primarily online pull tactics (including inbound marketing, content marketing, SEO and social media). The upside for professional B2B sales executives is that they get to focus their time and attention on building relationships and closing profitable deals.
Good post. Informed insights.
Thanks,
Bob
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Bob, I totally agree with you. I have a background in enterprise software sales way back in the 90s. As you say, now the burden is on the marketing function to produce trust and qualified leads. B2B sales professionals should spend 100% of their time working on opportunities, not prospecting. They must be very knowledgeable about their products, their industry and competitors. That's not new. But, the trust factor built by the brand outside the sales experience is more important than ever.
Thanks for your comment. Always appreciated!
Cheers,
Bernie -
Bernie,
I love this post – one of the best "what the future looks like" posts I've read and have linked to it in my latest post on why Job titles are now obsolete.
I hope you don’t mind, but I want add one missing element – and I think this is the needle that threads through all your predictions:
>>> Everyone is a marketer. <<<
- The customer is a marketer
- The employee is a marketer
- The critic is a marketerNow, regardless of title, everyone is a marketer via their engagement, contribution, word-of-mouth, blogging, tweeting etc to their core audience. That audience may be friends and family only, or perhaps 300 connections on facebook, or 25 followers on twitter, or 36,000 blog readers. But the connection is there and we are all marketers – now more than ever – and in the future, more than now thanks to the escalating adoption of smart phones, internet, and "mainstream" social sites like twitter and Facebook.
The guys that win in this new race are the guys who ENABLE the customers to share their story, who engage the minds of their audience, and become a character worth repeating.
Because everyone is a marketer, customer service will improve because it has no choice, customer acquisition will improve for those who are transparent because they are the obvious choice, product development will improve because everyone will share an opinion, brand definition will flex because the market will flex it regardless of the brand owner. Similarly, business responsiveness, management and Innovation will be increasingly viewed with a "marketing" filter with consideration to internal and external connections.
Lastly, since everyone is a marketer, everyone will value the content they market. Opinion holders and opinion shifters will agree that their thoughts, ideas, insights, etc are valauble and the "internet collective" will tell these people that their contributions could be monetized and hundreds, then thousands, then millions of examples will illustrate this which will lead to expansive content creation and even further crystalizing of micro niches. Everyone is a marketer.
Thanks Bernie – I'm glad I found you a while back. By the way, I should get your book on Monday according to my shipping tracker! I look forward to reading it and "marketing" it.
Best,
Justin McCullough
Leader4hire -
Hey Justin – thanks for your thoughtful comment. If I may paraphrase it into this cliche: "marketing is the enterprise." Or, if you prefer: "the enterprise is marketing." That's my interpretation of your commentary.
Thanks again. And happy new decade!
Bernie
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Outstanding, thought-provoking insights Bernie! Well done again my friend.
The one thing I would add, is the increased importance of 'business model design and innovation' in the 10' decade. Companies such as IBM are adopting a more holistic approach to examining and tweaking their business model. Organizations who do not embrace this paradigm shift, simply will not last.
Happy New Decade!
Respectfully,
Joseph Matthew Warren
Creative Strategy Facilitation
http://www.BrainstormWeekly.com -
Hey Bernie,
Since “everyone is a marketer”, this means the most successful enterprise is the one that enables the most people to market their enterprise. The enterprise must market and the enterprise is required to do this according to the mantra “the enterprise is marketing, don’t get me wrong, but it is really about the enterprise enabling customers to market the enterprise.
I believe your statement is indeed true, but I am actually saying the “enterprise is customer enablement". The enterprise must enable the customer to market the enterprise and the enterprise must in fact marketable.
Please let me know if you feel like this is just a matter of semantics. I’m not trying to get the last word.
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Hey Justin,
It feels like semantics to me. We're saying the same thing. When the enterprise enables the customer to spread the word the enterprise is doing its job effectively of being the marketing. But, I want to be clear that an enterprise with bad products or bad customer service can't fix those problems with good marketing. That's not what I'm saying. Product problems are bigger than ever due to the transparency of the world we live in. Businesses can't hide their problems. But, good products can enjoy greater success through what you call "customer enablement."Thanks again.
Bernie -
Great article Bernie. It's amazing how much as changed over the past 10 years. I'm really excited to see what happens in the next 10 years.
As you mentioned in the article, social media will becoming a larger piece of the marketing puzzle. I think it will be integrated more into the marketing piece & I'm really excited to see how it will be used in the coming years. We've seen companies like Dell, Zappos and many others really implement social media very well thus far.
Keep up the great work Bernie. Doug
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Great post Bernie. I particularly like your observation on marketing. Drucker said, paraphrasing, that a business has only two functions: marketing and innovation. Wow, think about that for a minute.
Also, unified communication products now becoming mainstream (we love Microsoft's Office Communication Server) are providing that virtual "central nervous system," allowing small and large companies alike to create competitive advantage. It's this intangible "wow" experience that keeps the client loyal in the face of ever-increasing options, pushed through an exploding selection of channels. Berry and Parasuraman have done some great research in this area of service quality and consistent service experience.
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Hey Doug, we're also starting to see many small companies embrace social media with growing success. Those with a strong content strategy are doing well.
Cheers,
Bernie -
Bernie,
I'd like to reply back about one of your predictions . . . "I predict the decade of 10’ will be the death of FREE content." I agree that people will pay for content in the future, and in many cases, happily for an expert to provide valuable information. At the same time, I also think there will still be free content. Many people will market their services for paid content by offering free content as "bait pieces". I think we'll see small articles, e-books, and short pieces as a way to entice prospects to buy.
I love the idea of combining free and for pay content.
What are your thoughts?
Lesley Peters
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Bernie,
Thanks for your reply. I like the idea of "pay per view." As I mentioned in my earlier post, we may see people doing free content to entice buyers. I imagine we'll see some other ways to get people to purchase content. I'm looking forward to see creativity explode in that area.
I'm so glad you brought the topic up. Let's see what 2010 brings for us. Many thanks!
Lesley Peters
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all prediction is the best …
i am agree with you.. -
How do I put up my Blogspot blog on Google Search? О
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All right, it really is a good start however i'm going to consider that a great deal more. Will let you know what else i have found.
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